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JULY 1,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:48 P.M. ET:   

BANGLADESH – FROM FOX:   DEVELOPING: Commandos backed by armored vehicles stormed a upscale restaurant in the Bangladesh capital's diplomatic zone Saturday, killing at least six Islamist militants who had taken dozens of hostages the previous evening.  Approximately three hours after the raid began, police Lt. Col. Tuhin Mohammad Masud confirmed to the Associated Press that the restaurant's main building had been cleared and at least 13 hostages had been rescued.  Masud added that some of the militants had been captured and noted "the operation is still going on." He also said there were casualties among the hostages, but declined to elaborate.  Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina confirmed in a nationally televised speech that some hostages had been killed, though she did not give an exact number. She also said security officials had captured one of the militants alive and vowed to fight terrorist attacks in the country.  This is still an incomplete story, especially regarding numbers of casualties.  More will come in.  But it's clear that this is simply another example of loose gun laws.  Nothing else to see, nothing else to see.

RACIST HILLARY! – FROM DAILY CALLER:   Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton unveiled a new plan Tuesday that would provide student loan assistance, and potentially full forgiveness, to college graduates who try to start their own business. But almost immediately after being announced, critics on the left decried Clinton’s plan, arguing that it will be too beneficial to white male graduates.  Under a plan Clinton laid out Tuesday during a campaign stop in Denver, student borrowers who provide proof they’ve started a new business can have the interest on their student loans deferred for up to three years while they work to build their business. If borrowers start up their business in an economically distressed area, they’ll also be eligible to have up to $17,500 in loans forgiven after five years.  The race industry tells us that entrepreneurs are mostly white and male.  Okay, maybe the critics should devote their time to encouraging minorities and women to try starting their own businesses (as many already do).  Oh wait, that might be capitalist.  They might actually succeed, and employ people.  Not acceptable.  Never mind. 

NEW WARNING – FROM LONDON'S DAILY MAIL:  A pro-ISIS twitter account has threatened attacks at London Heathrow, LAX and New York's JFK airports over the July 4 holiday weekend.  The account said that attacks would be carried out on planes 'flying from Heathrow [Airport] to the US' and warned that 'there will be a device placed in either Heathrow, LAX or JFK airports.'  The threat was revealed by SITE Intelligence Group - the world's leading non-governmental counterterrorism organization - on its website...On Thursday, the FBI said there are no specific or credible security threats against the United States known to law enforcement heading into the Fourth of July weekend.  'However, law enforcement and members of the public must remain vigilant. ... The FBI asks members of the public to maintain awareness of their surroundings and to report any suspicious activity to law enforcement,' an FBI spokeswoman said in a statement.

July 1, 2016       Permalink

UPHEAVAL IN BRITAIN – AT 9:48 A.M. ET:  After the Brexit vote last week, it was widely assumed that former London Mayor Boris Johnson, a conservative, would become Britain's next prime minister.  But Johnson was betrayed by one of his closest allies, who decided that he should be prime minister.  The mess revolted many, and attention has now turned toward a new candidate, who has quickly become the favorite to succeed David Cameron at 10 Downing Street.  From Sky News: 

Theresa May has won the backing of a number of senior Tories in the race to be the next Prime Minister - as Michael Gove prepares to make his pitch for the job.

With supporters of the one-time frontrunner Boris Johnson up for grabs for the five contenders, the Home Secretary secured endorsements from cabinet colleagues Michael Fallon and Patrick McLoughlin.

Cabinet Office minister Matt Hancock - a close ally of Chancellor George Osborne - also came out for Mrs May on Thursday night.

Justice Secretary Michael Gove will make a speech later after his last-minute decision to enter the race stunned Westminster and forced his Vote Leave partner Mr Johnson to drop out.

Laying out his support for the Home Secretary, Mr Fallon said: "As Defence Secretary, I've worked closely with Theresa on security and she is the right person to steer Britain through the serious challenges we now face.

"Theresa is the best person to lead our exit from the EU so that we reduce immigration and regain sovereignty while protecting our hard won economic growth.

"She has the track record, the temperament and the commitment to unite both the party and the country behind a clear plan for our future."

Transport Secretary Mr McLoughlin, writing in The Sun, said Mrs May would be able to do the required deals in Brussels as the UK negotiated its exit from the European Union.

Suggesting Mrs May had "the 'it' factor", he said: "We know that the next prime minister needs to forge a deal from the EU as we shape our brighter future in the rest of the world. And her track record shows that when Theresa arrives in Brussels, Europe's bosses sit up and listen."

COMMENT:  From the perspective of the Anglo-American alliance, May is a solid choice.  She's somewhat Thatcherite in her determination to get the job done, and conservative enough in her views, although she favored staying in the EU in the recent referendum.  But when the vote was counted and favored leaving, she insisted that the people's will be carried out.

July 1,  2016     Permalink

TRUMP'S V.P. POSSIBILITIES – AT 9:21 A.M. ET:  The vetting process for the Trump side has begun.  From the Washington Post:   

Donald Trump’s campaign has begun formally vetting possible running mates, with former House speaker Newt Gingrich emerging as the leading candidate, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. But there are more than a half dozen others being discussed as possibilities, according to several people with knowledge of the process.

Given Trump’s unpredictability, campaign associates caution that the presumptive Republican nominee could still shake up his shortlist. But with little more than two weeks before the start of the Republican National Convention, Gingrich and Christie have been asked to submit documents and are being cast as favorites for the post inside the campaign. Gingrich in particular is the beneficiary of a drumbeat of support from Trump confidants such as Ben Carson.

A number of senators — including Jeff Sessions (Ala.) and Bob Corker (Tenn.) — are also being reviewed as viable picks, although the extent to which they are being vetted is unclear. A longer shot on Trump’s radar is Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, a heavyweight on the right who could bolster Trump’s tepid support among some conservative activists.

COMMENT:  Hard to know exactly what's real here.  Trump remains a controversial candidate among many Republicans.  I'm guessing – it's speculation – that he's getting many turn-downs from people he'd like to consider.  I can easily see an adviser saying to a prospect, "Look, he's disliked within the party and will probably lose to Clinton.  Why get involved and get tainted with the Trump label?"

I don't think either Gingrich or Christie will excite anyone.  Gingrich is brilliant and innovative, but a man of the past with no current constituency.  Christie is increasingly unpopular in his home state and comes off the same way Trump often does – as gruff and confrontational.

Trump could use a woman on the ticket, but he insulted two of the best prospects, Governor Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Governor Susana Martinez of New Mexico, during the primaries.  Trump's loose mouth is coming back to haunt him.

July 1, 2016       Permalink

ETHICS...OR SOMETHING ELSE? – AT 8:56 A.M. ET:  Attorney General Loretta Lynch will play no part in the probe into Hillary Clinton e-mails.  From The New York Times:

Attorney General Loretta E. Lynch plans to announce on Friday that she will accept whatever recommendation career prosecutors and the F.B.I. director make about whether to bring charges related to Hillary Clinton’s personal email server, a Justice Department official said. Her decision removes the possibility that a political appointee will overrule investigators in the case.

The Justice Department had been moving toward such an arrangement for months — officials said in April that it was being considered — but a private meeting between Ms. Lynch and former President Bill Clinton this week set off a political furor and made the decision all but inevitable.

Republicans said the meeting, which took place at the Phoenix airport, had compromised the independence of the investigation as the F.B.I. was winding it down. Some called for Ms. Lynch to recuse herself, but she did not take herself off the case — one that could influence a presidential election.

Ms. Lynch has said she wants to handle the Clinton investigation like any other case. Since the attorney general often follows the recommendations of career prosecutors, Ms. Lynch is keeping the regular process largely intact.

COMMENT:  That's fine, as far as it goes.  But does it go far enough?  Every story I've seen on this today limits Lynch's recusal to the e-mail investigation.  But it's widely believed among informed sources that the FBI is also probing bribery issues involving the Clinton Foundation, and that these issues could involve both Bill and Hillary Clinton.  Is Lynch recusing herself from that part of the investigation as well? 

It's possible that the journalistic shorthand found in stories thus far used the "e-mail investigations" as an umbrella for any probe involving the Clintons, but I want clarification.   Reporters must ask.

July 1,  2016     Permalink

JUNE 30,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:56 P.M. ET: 

IT'S ALWAYS A BUSINESS – FROM THE COLLEGE FIX:   Perpetually blue vested Black Lives Matter activist — and failed Baltimore mayoral candidate — DeRay Mckesson will become Baltimore Public Schools’ interim chief human capital officer under incoming schools CEO Sonja Santelises.  His starting salary: $165,000. He will oversee some 56 employees and a budget of $4 million.  Mckesson had previously served as a “strategist and special assistant in the human capital office” for two and a half years where he oversaw “key reforms.”  “He has the depth of knowledge of the system, and he has proved that he can lift the work in a short amount of time,” CEO Santelises said. “And he has proven his dedication to the children of Baltimore.”  I'm sure his dedication is great, as long as it's rewarded in the usual hack-politics way.

FOLK WISDOM – FROM THE WASHINGTON TIMES:   Roughly 13 percent of Americans think extinction via “Giant Meteor” would be preferable to electing Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump the next U.S. commander in chief.  Public Policy Polling decided to gauge just how disaffected voters are with the presumptive Democratic and Republican presidential contenders. A survey conducted June 27-28 among 853 registered voters yielded telling results, particularly among independents.  “It’s a simple reality that both of this year’s Presidential candidates are unpopular. Clinton’s favorability is 39/54, and Trump is even worse off at 35/58,’ the pollster’s report reads. “This has given rise to the ‘Giant Meteor for President’ movement, and we find that the Meteor would poll at 13 percent — far more support than the third party candidates actually on the ballot — with Clinton at 43 percent and Trump at 38 percent.  The people have spoken, and they are right.  I've never seen such discontent with the major party candidates.  We've had unpopular matchings before – Johnson vs. Goldwater in '64, Nixon vs. McGovern in '72.  But nothing like this. 

IS THE FIX IN? – FROM DAILY CALLER:    Department of Justice officials filed a motion in federal court late Wednesday seeking a 27-month delay in producing correspondence between former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s four top aides and officials with the Clinton Foundation and Teneo Holdings, a closely allied public relations firm that Bill Clinton helped launch.  If the court permits the delay, the public won’t be able to read the communications until October 2018, about 22 months into her prospective first term as President. The four senior Clinton aides involved were Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Michael Fuchs, Ambassador-At-Large Melanne Verveer, Chief of Staff Cheryl Mills, and Deputy Chief of Staff Huma Abedin.  Just another day in the life of our former, and possibly future, first family.

June 30, 2016       Permalink

MORE HEADACHES FOR CLINTON? – AT 10:18 A.M. ET:  Her problems are building.  And they're coming from different directions.  From Bill Gertz at the Washington Times:   

U.S. intelligence agencies are said to be closely watching Russian online blogs and other postings for any signs that Moscow hackers have covertly obtained the bulk of Hillary Clinton’s email messages stolen from her private email server and are preparing to make them public.

A U.S. intelligence official told Inside the Ring that the indications of the email release are being closely watched, although the veracity of at least two postings on the matter could not be confirmed as authoritative.

A State Department official has said Russia is one of at least three foreign governments likely to have obtained the full content of the former secretary of state’s server through covert hacking operations. The other two are China and Israel.

Russian intelligence agencies are suspected of cyberintrusions that obtained sensitive political information contained in Democratic National Committee networks. Last week, reports surfaced that computer networks of the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation were also compromised, also by Russian hackers.

Russian intelligence is considered to be the most capable nation-state cyberespionage and cyberwarfare power, and its intelligence-gathering operations in the U.S. are said to be going at Cold War levels.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, a former KGB intelligence officer schooled in the black arts of covert operations, would be the top authority to order the release of the Clinton emails, if in fact Moscow has obtained the tens of thousands of private emails.

A possible Russian motive for making public all the emails would be to undermine any Justice Department influence in the ongoing FBI investigation of the private email server, an investigation said by FBI sources to have expanded into whether the server was used improperly to boost the fortunes of the Clinton Foundation.

COMMENT:  This is icky.  It's really icky.  I guess Hillary's "reset" with Russia didn't work.   If the Kremlin does release those e-mails, it could end her campaign.  And remember, if Russia actually has them, Russian operatives are in a perfect position to blackmail Hillary and those around her.

Why do I think this is going to be one of the most dramatic election campaigns ever?

June 30, 2016       Permalink

BULLETIN – INCREDIBLE POLL RESULT – AT 9:33 A.M. ET:   Are the polls changing, or is this an outlier?  An important poll now shows Trump taking the lead.  From the Daily Mail:

Donald Trump has jumped ahead of Hillary Clinton by 4 percentage points, the first time he has led her in a national poll since 38 days ago.

The poll of 1,000 likely voters from Rasmussen Reports found that 43 per cent would vote for Trump if the November election were held today, compared with 39 per cent for Clinton.

That represents a 9-point swing in just the last week: Seven days ago the same pollsters reported that Clinton was leading the presidential race by 5 points.

The last time Trump polled better than her in a national survey was a May 22 survey from ABC News and the Washington Post that had him up by 2 – a lead smaller than the poll's margin of error.

'It remains to be seen whether he’s just having a good week or this actually represents a real move forward among voters,' Rasmussen reported online.

Part of that good week was a widely praised speech in western Pennsylvania about trade, and a stunning vote among United Kingdom citizens to leave the European Union – a move that resonated with Trump supporters.

Trump is gaining ground among younger voters, at least among Rasmussen's sample of Americans: While other polls show Clinton with sizable leads in that group, Thursday's release shows the two candidates tied among voters under 40 years of age.

Another source of Trump's apparent momentum is an advantage over Clinton among crossover defectors who plan to vote against their own party registration.

The billionaire Republican has cornered 14 per cent of the Democratic vote, according to Rasmussen, while the former Democratic secretary of state has only attracted the support of 10 per cent of Republicans.

He also leads among independent voters, by a sizable 18-point margin.

COMMENT:  There is also something else.  There are some pollsters who believe that those loyal to Hillary are being oversampled in most polls, and that the electorate may be different in this election.  Trump tends to pull from a great variety of voters, and from those who normally don't vote. 

June 30, 2016        Permalink

A SIGN OF HILLARY'S CHARACTER – AT 9:08 A.M. ET:  She is revealed by her actions.  From the great David Martosko at London's Daily Mail: 

It took Hillary Clinton at least 48 days to speak with any of the government personnel who were evacuated from Benghazi, Libya after the deadly anti-American terror attacks there, according to sworn testimony from her longtime senior aide Huma Abedin.

Abedin testified in October of last year in a closed-door deposition that after checking in with a single injured agent from the State Department's Bureau of Diplomatic Security, a man who would spend more than a year recovering at the Walter Reed National Military Medical Center, Clinton went the rest of 2012 without speaking to another survivor.

That view contradicts what Hillary Clinton would tell Congress six days later in an open hearing.
'I talked to the survivors when they came back to the United States,' Clinton said during a lengthy Capitol Hill grilling. 'And one who was for many months in Walter Reed on the telephone.'

Abedin testified differently in an October 16, 2015 deposition before the Select Committee on Benghazi, saying Clinton spoke with just one agent through the end of 2012.

She also told investigators that it was she who reminded Clinton to check in on the hospitalized security agent nearly 7 weeks after the attack.

Presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump told DailyMail.com that questions about whether Clinton followed up with her underlings after they faced death in Libya indicate her shortcomings as a candidate.

'Hillary Clinton started the Libyan war that put our Ambassador in danger, her State Department ignored repeated requests for security, then left them there to die,' Trump said.

'Next, she lied to the world about a video being the cause. Now we learn she even delayed meeting with survivors.'

She unleashed ISIS, failed our diplomatic personnel, and put the whole nation at risk through her corrupt email scheme,' Trump continued. 'Hillary is dangerous, incompetent, and reckless. She can never lead.'

COMMENT:  Clinton currently leads in the polls, due in large measure to Trump's blunders.  But questions of character can bring her down.  A former Secret Service agent just wrote a devastating book about her.  And she still faces a serious FBI probe.

The race is just beginning.

June 30,  2016     Permalink